New job, new firm but the same Free Whelan. Thank you for your continued support and keep unlocking valuable insights into the global market every week with me!
An exhausting week last week with deadlines and accounts. Took the girls to see Olivia Rodrigo on Tuesday night and the joy of my youngest attending her first “proper concert” soured by the two hours it took to leave the carpark after the show! My attitude towards Homebush remains unchanged. Also, your work ethic may be good but “O-Rod” on Tuesday completed the final show of her 95 concert world tour. 95!! Saturday night I went around for my third year hosting the trivia night for the Northbridge skipping team. Raised a little over $7k for the kids and I’m always impressed by the generosity of the folks in my village.
To business
Another ripping week ahead with a few deals on of interest. Primarily the one going for H2X right now, the road show for it starting last week and heading to Melbourne and Brisbane this week. Positive feedback so far for the hydrogen retrofitter.
I do honestly believe retrofitting cars (taking an existing chassis and switching out the internal combustion engine for a hydrogen cell) will become more popular as well.
Toyota says their next cell will be 50% cheaper and 50% more powerful so the future is bright for hydrogen-powered fleet vehicles. The stars are aligning for hydrogen in Europe with the Union targeting net zero as quickly as possible.
It’s great Europe is so committed to getting there, what with the 408 coal-fired power plants in construction right now.
Source: Michael A. Arouet - X
An action-packed podcast on Friday and as usual here is the link to that. We run through moves in the market and pick out some stocks set to run.
I’m still keen on OVT and am a long-term holder of Beforepay (B4P) which has started to shape up nicely.
Source: TradingView
Putting it mildly…
We put out a note on Ovanti late last week. Take a look. It’s quite good. For any further information please give me a call.
The US update
We now have Trump winning as fully factored in, with betting markets firmly favouring him and markets almost fairly priced in.
Tariffs will be increased, confidence will soar, the USD will continue its upward trajectory, deficit up, inflation up and yields up.
If you’re going to buy something buy the S&P 493 (the 500 less the “magnificent 7) because I think that’s where the value is rotating to.
The market
Interesting to note that with the VIX above 20 and the Nasdaq at a record high we are in dangerous territory. Be prepared for some downward pressure.
Source: X
Speaking of bubbles, this came across the feed last week. Apparently 7% of America’s workforce are *checks notes* social media content creators.
Source: Tovima.com
Speechless…
Finally a little something on forward valuations of the S&P 500. They’re quite high compared to their average levels.
Source: FactSet
And something to ponder in Europe is that things are so grim (or a host of other reasons) in Germany that dogs now outnumber children under 10.
People aren’t having kids anymore.
Source: Federal Statistical Office (2024)
Angela Merkel has a lot to answer for
All the best and stay safe,
James
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