New year, new insights but the same Free Whelan. Thank you for your continued support and keep unlocking valuable insights into the global market with me!
Here’s to a second consecutive weekend in which the news is on things that should not be considered over a weekend,
Last weekend it was the biggest disruptor to the most disrupted sector in history already: DeepSeek.
This week it’s Trump doing the very thing that he said he was going to do and the market reacting pretty much how it indicated it would.
Going after Canada though…Canada!!??? We know it’s all part of his plan to weaken it and eventually annex the great White North. 4D chess.
But in seriousness here’s the cheat sheet for what came out over the weekend.
Source: Courtesy Goldman Sachs
You know I’m always the guy with the right follow so if it’s oil you want to know about then look no further than Anas Alhajji, one of the better energy experts around the place.
Image of an X post: Text: 62% of US crude imports come from Canada. A 10% tariff on oil imports from Canada starts Tuesday, brace for higher diesel prices. Trucking is the backbon of the US economy. Brace for impact.
(AI generated image: Donald Trump holding a gun shooting an oil tank)
Source: Anas Alhajji - X (apologies for the AI generated image)
On top of this expect the hits to be the greatest in the Midwest and Rockies and therefore to impact farming costs more than anything.
Those costs get passed through to food prices etc and the ongoing conversation about food inflation continues.
Note though that Canada is temporary (apparently) so anything you do around this make it a good time not a long time.
But if you were going to do something for a long time…gold.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
COMEX Gold deliveries at 2.9m ounces. That’s a lot of people turning from paper to physical. It’s never been this high.
Let’s not get bogged down on the details behind that (because it’s a whole note in itself and I’m not that guy) but I’m still a bull for gold. The market is tight. Lease rates and time to delivery through the roof.
Here’s our gold note from the 24th. Scroll down to download to see the details on the companies we like. There’s some great names on there that in my view still have further to run.
Heath and I detail the whole back and forth on the podcast which dropped on Friday just gone and as usual it’s a great listen. Check it out here.
We also go into the question about who owns the output of AI, since OpenAI is shouting that DeepSeek stole their output, which is terribly ironic since OpenAI stole…pretty much the whole internet.
On Artificial Intelligence
We have a note about to drop on AI and some of our picks around it. There’s some names in there that look amazing so if you want to have a look please let me know and I’ll arrange.
But here’s a link to an investigation into how DeepSeek acquired so many new chips (illegally) and the line item on Nvidia’s sales which is just “Singapore”.
Please have a read, it’s very good.
But if you just want to see one chart….
There are a lot of winner and losers in the continuing AI war so if you’re going to go into anything then pay attention. No lazy money in this space at the moment.
Finally I’ll leave you with this and someone is long the physical heading into the tariff war with Mexico.
Good luck, buddy.
Image of an X post:
Conversation: - "Yo, can you freeze avocados?"
- "huh?"
- (an image of a bucket of avocados)
Bought 100 Mexican avocados yesterday
Before tarriffs
Wtf I do?
Guac? Can you freeze guac?
Source: Trung Phan - X
Bonus content: here’s me when I take out the bin on Monday night.
Image of an X post: Text: Me when I turn the dishwasher on
Smith's holding a cricket bat.
Source: Deep Longstop - X
(Well done Smithy, proud of you on the milestone)
All the best and stay safe, happy thanksgiving too,
James
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