New job, new firm but the same Free Whelan. Thank you for your continued support and keep unlocking valuable insights into the global market every week with me!
Casting my mind back to 2020 when there were some very restrained Cup Day festivities (because of Covid) I decided to stay home and watch the racing, knowing I had to appear on Ausbiz for live coverage of the US election the next day. I kept it quiet not because I didn’t want to be a part of the crowds at that time or because I was overly nervous in front of the camera but because I knew that the election result would be so knife edge I couldn’t afford to miss it.
We now lean into the same scenario with the market on hooks for the slightest moves.
Trust some of it, polling has been wild but the exit polls are showing some incredible numbers and the odds are firming up for Harris after blowing out last week.
Before we get to that we have a fairly huge week of rate decisions.
And if you’ve heard me talk about how the Fed cut 50bps when no one predicted it and how you should at least keep your eyes open for the signs they saw that we didn’t. Maybe it’s the job numbers (which is a pretty big deal) being continually revised lower after the print.
On the below if you look at the “previous” column and see what it links to with the “Actual” number from a month earlier you see the revisions down.
Source: Kobeissiletter - X
8 of the last 11 jobs reports have been revised lower.
Look at the actual jobs number just posted and it’s a case of thinking that reasonably a very weak 12K jobs created might be revised lower next month.
Could happen.
Trump's winning is bullish for the USD and we’ve seen dollars play a pivotal role in assisting us know where the election is swinging.
Bullish dollar isn’t amazing for commodities or the Chinese so pay attention.
Review of last month.
Absolute snooze fest with regards to vol.
Source: Carson Investment Research, FactSet 10/30/2024
The market ticks over regardless of the election. Volatility is telling you that. Small positional moves only.
Finally some caution, Berkshire Hathaway keeps increasing its cash pile and isn’t running buybacks, or selling Apple stock. $325 billion is quite a lot!!!
But the market is still hyped for the run…
Source: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
I reiterate it could be time to take a little off the table.
Stay safe and all the best,
James
PS tomorrow’s tips- I like #12 Okita Soushi from #13 Onesmoothoperator.
Good luck
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