New job, new firm but the same Free Whelan. Thank you for your continued support and keep unlocking valuable insights into the global market every week with me!
G'day all and it’s my sad duty to inform you that it is, in fact, not coming home.
Which is good because no one wants to see me in my Union Jack suit and tie. One day…but not today.
Bullet dodged.
Speaking of dodging bullets we had Trump as a lock for the presidency since late last year.
Then after the debate, more people got on board that train.
And now…I think it’s so over that the Dems won’t even bother switching out Biden. Anyone who runs is going to lose.
On the record here saying that I cannot stand the guy but you have to respect the flair for the dramatic. Imagery for days.
Source: Evan Vucci
There’s an anecdote doing the rounds now that he still made his 9 am tee time the next day. One of the cart boys posted that they were attached to his group, he sunk a 20-footer on the 9th and said something along the lines of “That’s the difference between me and the shooter…I don’t miss”
You’ll see a lot of those stories over the coming days.
What it means? Don’t stop the music on bullish markets. 2, maybe 3 rate cuts by the Fed into a Trump Presidency that is ready to take the reigns on day one instead of blathering around not knowing how the printers work like in 2016.
Business-friendly, anti-China to some extent again with tariffs kicking back up a notch.
What people missed the first time is that he’s not a war-time guy. However I do believe he’ll push NATO to spend more on US arms and with Boeing exorcising all their demons (eventually) we think that BA could be a decent, albeit controversial, pick.
Here’s a look at a weekly chart back to pre-Covid days.
Source: TradingView
Funnily enough, based on what Boeing has been through these last few whiles you’d think the chart would be in much worse shape. Robust.
Plenum Time
I do love a good plenum and this iteration of the 5 year Chinese Central Committee planning meeting is tipped to be quite bullish. I’m happy to be long Iron Ore and its derivative names (where appropriate) going into the week and beyond. I am happy to do the same with Copper.
Source: Financial Times
A 25% increase YOY on Chinese investment in power grid projects just in the first quarter this year. Read it again.
We are also seeing more signs of the M&A activity predicted in Copper markets recently.
This…
Source: Reuters
Aaand this
Source: Reuters
There are just two. Own copper. Own copper companies. Hold on as long as you can. Global X has the WIRE ETF which is a handy way to own copper companies.
Small Caps
After the end of year rulers were run over the different factors that did what it was decided that small-cap value was the worst place to put your money. Or something close to that. Smalls have done badly. And then, just like that, the squeeze was on.
IWM (the US Small caps ETF) closed at its highest level since Jan 2022 on Friday after having two ripping days.
Under-owned assets that do well in rate-cutting environments? Sounds like small caps to me.
Also whenever the smalls outperform large caps by over 3% it’s wildly bullish for markets. Observe..
Source: Carson Investment Research, YCharts 07/12/2024
Speaking of small caps, our Australian Investment Summit
Has been and gone in London and by all accounts was a wild success. The capacity crowd of fundies and investors is there to see some fine Australian names with short and long-term LSE listing ambitions.
My own favourite that we own in size is Wellnex and they presented beautifully regarding their impending dual listing in London. Of note was this small section of the slide show that I think has been underplayed…
Source: Wellnex Life Investor Presentation
Pay attention to what happens on this dual listing as we should see a rush for other companies to do the same if it does work for them.
Impact Minerals Update
I also sat down with Mike Jones, MD of Impact Minerals, to talk about their latest news on the High Purity Alumina asset progress.
The latest podcast was lots of fun too about dressing gowns, small caps and plenty of Plenums. Link here
All the best and stay safe,
James
A quick detour to announce the BPC NRL Tipping Competition!
Welcome to the BPC NRL Tipping Competition for 2024. The season has kicked off with a bang in the glittery lights of Las Vegas. Panthers are favorites to take the crown again but the Broncos look like a formidable opponent to take revenge from the heartbreak of 2023. BPC loves its footy and we're very excited for the season ahead. We also love to win stuff so please keep an eye out for the prizes on offer. Sign up and join the game!
