New job, new firm but the same Free Whelan. Thank you for your continued support and keep unlocking valuable insights into the global market every week with me!
Ahhhh Budget Week is always memorable as it comes around my birthday. (And a happy 43rd to me) Re the Budget I never get a birthday present. Lots of goodies to throw around, almost always given to people who aren’t me.
However, we occasionally see a few dollars sent to interesting places and the one I’m seeing is the boost for critical minerals mapping. $566m to find and map the locations of critical minerals, make them freely available to industry and use that to build on the target of net zero (critical minerals being integral to the production of renewable energy).
As we are connected to companies in the space and continue to support the sector, we will watch intently.
Podcast
Another sharp podcast was recorded by Health Moss and me on Friday. We run through the market as it is and as it will be. Specifically, the weaker US job numbers created a solid floor under the market. Inflation data moves upwards for a few data points and then downwards again, taking the market along inversely as it does. We remain bullish. Link here to listen.
US market valuations update
Source: Factset
The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 20.4. Above the 5-year average and the 10-year average.
RBA vs Treasury
Locally, the Treasury feels that “inflation is solved, get involved” which has inflation forecasts back to a more appropriate level and is getting everyone excited about the chance of a pre-election rate cut.
Source: Financial Review
I hope he’s right, but as we know hope is not a strategy.
I hope they’re wrong in Germany
What does appear to be a strategy is the German Greens who are fighting climate change by closing the nuclear power plants and then massively underreporting the methane emissions of the still-running coal mines.
Source: Shen et ai. (2023), International Energy Agency (IEA). Global Energy Monitor (GEM)
Source: Michael A. Arouet - X
Courtesy Micheal A Arouet. 25% of Germany’s power comes from coal now.
This simply cannot go on.
I’ve mentioned 0 Days to Expiry options before, and they’re getting outta hand.
Source: Bloomberg, BofA Global Research
This theoretically makes the VIX less relevant due to the move of anyone trading options away from the things that make up the VIX.
Finally
Also, Apple launched the new iPad Pro. Yay. But the way in which they did it really reminds you of what sort of dystopian reality we’re building for ourselves.
Watch the ad posted by Tim Cook then make up your own mind:
https://x.com/tim_cook/status/1787864325258162239
If you had the thought that “Wow it looks like Apple is taking pleasure in crushing the world’s creative tools into a lifeless black object then congrats, you have a soul.
Humans are amazing. We must never forget that.
Source: BuccoCapital Bloke - X
Stay safe and all the best,
James
A quick detour to announce the BPC NRL Tipping Competition!
Welcome to the BPC NRL Tipping Competition for 2024. The season has kicked off with a bang in the glittery lights of Las Vegas. Panthers are favorites to take the crown again but the Broncos look like a formidable opponent to take revenge from the heartbreak of 2023. BPC loves its footy and we're very excited for the season ahead. We also love to win stuff so please keep an eye out for the prizes on offer. Sign up and join the game!
