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The UN Climate Change Conference, better known as COP, kicked off yesterday. The 29th edition (COP29), being held in Baku Azerbaijan, opens against a backdrop of geopolitical strain and wavering climate influence. COP29 was intended to address critical climate and energy issues, yet it finds itself overshadowed by political rifts, a resurgence of fossil fuel optimism following a Trump election victory, and absent leaders who traditionally steer global climate ambition. ABSI this week looks at the waning influence of COP.

Source: COP29

COP’s agenda is wide-ranging encompassing stocktake on carbon-reduction progress, technology and innovation, and accountability, but the critical focal point for COP29 is climate financing. This is an especially critical area because it goes beyond countries making easy, and somewhat empty, gestures to making firm commitments to put the money where their mouth is. 

Drilling down, one area of particular contention that will take centre stage at COP29 is loss and damage funds. As global warming exacerbates extreme weather events, low-income countries, which contribute the least to emissions, are often the hardest hit. As a result, wealthier nations have made vague historical commitments for climate reparations. COP29 will aim to establish firm contributions but will high-income nations alone contribute, or will high-emission middle-income countries (like China) also be expected to pitch in?

Unfortunately, the challenges at COP29 extend not only to negotiations on the inside but also externally as the spotlight is placed on the lack of attendance from high-profile politicians and business groups in a telling sign that COP’s influence has peaked and is waning. Countries that have historically championed aggressive climate policies now find their political priorities aligned with economic and energy concerns, often at the expense of climate commitments.

Annual Spend on Physical Assets for Energy & Land-use Systems

Source: McKinsey & Company

Adding to this burden is the recent election victory of Donald Trump who has campaigned on a pro fossil fuel platform to bring down energy prices for Americans. His administration’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in 2017 is a fresh memory for many, casting a shadow over COP29’s goals and reviving fears of another round of U.S. disengagement. Moreover, Trump’s win has emboldened climate-sceptic factions worldwide, with some leaders viewing the U.S. position as a licence to delay or scale back their own climate goals.

Finally, there is the symbolism and optics of COP being hosted by economies heavily reliant on fossil fuels and using the event as green washing. If you recall, COP28 was hosted by the United Arab Emirates and COP29 is being hosted by another fossil fuel-rich economy in Azerbaijan. Additionally, Azerbaijan has faced criticism not only on environmental issues but also has a questionable track record on human rights particularly around free speech and citizen rights. From my perspective, I think it's important that heavy polluters are included in the conversation and the buzz from the event can invigorate the local population to demand better action from their representatives. 

As COP29 unfolds, the stakes remain high despite the evident challenges. The question is whether the conference can regain relevance by producing actionable outcomes that transcend rhetoric. This may require COP29 to pivot toward practical, transparent pathways for sustainable energy and tangible climate finance mechanisms. If the COP framework can inspire countries to act despite the hurdles, it might yet retain its role as a catalyst for climate action. Otherwise, as it teeters on the edge of diminishing relevance, the world may witness the emergence of a new paradigm — one where climate progress depends less on grand convenings and more on grassroots action, regional alliances, and unorthodox coalitions.

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